𝗟𝗲𝘁’𝘀 𝗕𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰: 𝗪𝗵𝗼’𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 – 𝗢𝘀𝘂𝗻 𝗣𝗗𝗣 𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗯𝘂?

In light of the ongoing political speculations surrounding alignments and realignments in Osun State, it is important to speak truthfully and set the record straight. Accusations and counter-accusations are flying around – accompanied by prayers, curses, and even outlandish death wishes toward the President. This is not only reckless but a diversion from the political realities on ground.

Let’s recall the facts. In the 2022 Osun Governorship Election, the APC under former Governor Gboyega Oyetola lost to the PDP and Senator Ademola Adeleke by a margin of little above 27,000 votes. Then, in the 2023 Presidential Election, APC and its candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, again lost to PDP and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar with a narrow margin of little above 10,000 votes. These outcomes occurred when the PDP was a united front – with no major defections, and at a time when the party had successfully wooed former APC governor and the then Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, along with his influential TOP group, they voted enmass for PDP and its candidate.

Fast forward to post-election developments: the political landscape in Osun has significantly shifted in favour of the APC. In 2023, the PDP lost several prominent members to the APC, most notably Prince Dotun Babayemi, leader of the influential ATUNTO Group with over 42,000 votes in Osun West alone (based on his 2019 senatorial contest). Babayemi also enjoys widespread support across the other two senatorial districts. In addition, Barr. Kayode Oduoye (Super-K) defected to APC with his political structure in Ifelodun LGA and Odo-Otin/Ifelodun/Boripe Federal Constituency; Dr. Peter Babalola, former Chief of Staff to ex-Governor Oyinlola, moved with his structure in Irewole-Isokan axis; and Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, an octogenarian and former PDP BOT member, also joined the APC with his loyalists.

The most shocking defection yet occurred in 2024, barely a year and two months to the next governorship election: a serving Rep, Hon. Busayo Oluwole Oke (BOO) – a five-term House of Representatives member – left the PDP for the APC, taking with him his strong political base in Oriade/Obokun Federal Constituency, where he polled over 32,000 votes in 2023. With decades of national exposure, his influence spreads beyond his immediate constituency.

Moreover, Ogbeni Aregbesola and the majority of his supporters in the TOP/Ọmọlúàbí Progressives Group – including Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, who polled almost 50,000 votes in 2018 guber election – have now officially joined ADC, cutting off any chance of future alliances with Governor Adeleke or the PDP. Several other prominent PDP figures have also decamped to ADC recently. Simply put, the PDP has hemorrhaged politically.

Therefore, based on these developments, it’s clear the PDP has lost critical chunks of the votes it relied on to secure its wins in 2022 and 2023. With this context, it becomes not only logical but evident that the desperation for political alliance is coming from the PDP and Governor Ademola Adeleke – not from President Tinubu or the APC. The APC, bolstered by these strategic realignments, is confident of reclaiming Osun in 2026 without external political handholding as being spread.

𝗜𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗣𝗗𝗣 𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗽𝗲𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗯𝘂 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗸𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲. 𝗟𝗲𝘁’𝘀 𝗯𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘃𝗲𝘀.

Honourable Wasiu Abiọdun Ọlagunju writes